“History in a bottle”: tipping dynamics in packaging systems – the case of how a bottle reuse system was established and then undone

Abstract. In this paper, we investigate the initially successful transition from regional bottle reuse for mineral water to a widespread bottle reuse system in Germany, along with its subsequent destabilisation into a single-use recycling paradigm, and what this teaches us about tipping dynamics in packaging systems. Our aim is to understand how tipping happens, focusing on destabilising (of the previous system), tipping (towards the new system), and stabilising (of the new system) dynamics and the agency of business and policy to bring this about. Building on current research on positive tipping points (PTPs), our case study demonstrates opportunities to create an environment for change, the role of reinforcing feedback loops in accelerating sustainable transitions, and successful interventions. However, the case also demonstrates the threat of negative social tipping points: the destabilisation of newly created systems as a result of the emergence of competing technologies, in this case, single-use plastic bottles and recycling. Unsuccessful efforts to stop this included the introduction of a reusable plastic bottle and a failed policy intervention that rushed into a solution that instead accelerated the change it was designed to prevent. We close by examining what lessons can be learned from this historical case for current ongoing efforts to accelerate the transition towards a circular economy. Furthermore, based on our insights, we propose prescriptive steps based on the lens of positive tipping points to operationalise it to support the development of new solutions and interventions.