Unveiling the Role of Mediterranean Cyclones in North Africa’s Precipitation

Abstract This study examines the contribution of Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) to precipitation totals in the North Africa (NA) region from 1980 to 2024 using the high-resolution Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation dataset. Cyclone tracks were obtained by applying the CyTRACK framework to the 6-hourly European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data. Meanwhile, MC-related precipitation is defined as the rainfall within a 400 km radius of the cyclone centre. On average, 48% of the annual MC count contributes to precipitation in the NA region, particularly close to the coast of the Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia). Overall, the MCs account for ~ 9% of the total precipitation in the whole NA. Additionally, its contribution has a marked seasonal behaviour, peaking during the spring months, particularly in April with ~ 14%, and dropping to 2% in August. Furthermore, despite the statistically significant trends in the MC contributions in northern Algeria (positive) and Libya (negative), no region-wide tendencies were detected. In summary, this study emphasizes that understanding the MC contribution to precipitation in NA is essential for improving hydrological management strategies in this region, particularly in the context of global warming. Graphical Abstract This graphical abstract presents a study quantifying the contribution of Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) to precipitation totals across the North Africa region. It used CyTRACK, driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data, for MC detection and tracking, and the high-resolution Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) dataset to attribute MC-related precipitation. The spatial distribution of track density for MCs influencing the study region reveals high probability densities over the central and western Mediterranean Sea, extending into North African coastal areas. Spatially, the annual contribution map highlights that North African coastal regions, particularly the Maghreb, receive the highest percentage of MC-related precipitation. On average, MCs contribute approximately 9% of the annual precipitation across the entire study region. Furthermore, a monthly breakdown demonstrates marked seasonal contributions, peaking in April at approximately 14% and dropping to 2% in August. This research underscores the regionally varied role of MCs in North Africa’s hydrological cycle, emphasizing their significance for regional water resource management.