The Shrinkage of Lakes on the Semi-Arid Inner Mongolian Plateau Is Still Serious

In the Inner Mongolia Plateau Lake Zone (IMP), situated in China’s semi-arid region, its lake water storage change plays a critical role in wetland ecosystem conservation and regional water security through its lake water storage dynamics. To investigate long-term lake water storage (LWS) changes, this study proposes a novel lake monitoring framework that reconstructs historical lake level time series and estimates water level variations in lakes without altimetry data. Using multi-source satellite data, we quantified LWS variations (2000–2021) across 109 lakes (≥5 km2) on the IMP and examined their spatiotemporal patterns. Our results reveal a net decline of 1.21 Gt in total LWS over the past two decades, averaging 0.06 Gt/yr. A distinct shift occurred around 2012: LWS decreased by 10.82 Gt from 2000 to 2012 but increased by 9.61 Gt from 2013 to 2021. Spatially, significant LWS reductions were concentrated in the central and eastern IMP, resulting from intensive water diversion and groundwater exploitation. In contrast, increases were observed mainly in the western and southern regions, driven by enhanced precipitation and reduced aridity. The findings improve understanding of lake dynamics in semi-arid China over the last two decades and offer technical guidance for sustainable water resource management.