Climate metrics for modelling conditions on pilgrimages in Ethiopia

Abstract Weather influences human actions, including cultural practices. The effects of climate change on intangible heritage are widely discussed, yet there has been little work that links specific drivers of environmental change to such outcomes. This study develops a set of climate metrics relevant for pilgrimages, focusing on Ethiopia. It assesses the sensitivity of metrics to seasonal windows using observed data (ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS) and the ability of three GCMs (HadGEM3-GC31-MM, CMCC-ESM2 and NorESM2-MM) to capture climate metrics for dry season pilgrimages. Results show the importance of using time-windows relevant to processes or social practices that might not map onto traditional three-month seasons. Five of eight climate metrics assessed (minimum and maximum temperature, rain days, windchill and heat index) were successfully captured by the GCMs. These metrics could be used to assess future impacts of climate change on the conditions experienced by pilgrims in Ethiopia.