Why the New Turkey‐PKK Peace Process Is Likely to Fail

Abstract In fall 2024, the Turkish government suddenly proposed that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) disarm and disband in return for unspecified concessions. Abdullah Ocalan, the group's long‐incarcerated leader, agreed. During its extraordinary 12th Congress of May 2025, the PKK declared that its 40‐year violent struggle had “brought the Kurdish issue to the point of resolution through democratic politics, thus completing its historical mission.” It would therefore dissolve. This demarche has raised hopes that after decades of violence, Ankara and the militant group are moving toward peace. However, this article contends that despite its promise, the effort will likely fail, as it does not offer any constitutionally guaranteed rights to the Kurds—merely surrender. The analysis investigates why Ocalan supposedly agreed to break up his organization and shows that the government's real purpose may be to use the Kurds as temporary allies to marginalize opposition parties in the scheduled 2028 presidential election. Bolstering the argument is an examination of earlier, failed attempts to end this struggle. The conclusion suggests the conflict is likely to continue, though potentially with reduced violence and more political initiatives.