The impact of high-standard farmland construction policy on disaster vulnerability of food production systems: evidence from China

High-standard farmland construction (HSFC) plays a vital role in mitigating agricultural natural risks, lessening agricultural disasters, and safeguarding food security. China’s 2011-launched HSFC policy creates an ideal quasi-natural experiment. It permits rigorous quantification of farmland consolidation effects on the disaster vulnerability characterizing national food production systems. This study uses provincial panel data from China (2005–2022) and applies the continuous double difference method. It aims to uncover the spatiotemporal characteristics of disaster vulnerability in food production, assess the policy’s impact on such vulnerability, and empirically test the potential mediating role of agricultural mechanization, large-scale farming, and improved irrigation. Findings indicate a statistically significant decrease in food production’s disaster vulnerability attributable to the policy. This causal effect withstands rigorous validation via sequential robustness checks, including parallel trends assessment, placebo testing, and control cohort respecification. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the policy is particularly effective in reducing disaster vulnerability in major food - producing areas, dry - land regions, and wheat - growing regions. Mechanism analysis confirms that the policy achieves this effect by enhancing agricultural mechanization, promoting large-scale farming, and improving irrigation. These findings provide actionable empirical foundations for refining HSFC to bolster national food security resilience.