Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions—Clarification

Woodstock and Harris raise concerns about generalisations in our paper 'Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions'. They implied that our conclusions are invalidated by the exclusion of density dependent compensatory feedback and the existence of automated calibration approaches with overfitting penalties-claims that overlook the broader structural issues we identified. Here, we explore their key criticism in more detail, clarify our position and explain why we continue to stand by our findings.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ecology Letters
Published
2025-10-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70175
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions—Clarification

Cailan Jeynes‐Smith, Michael Bode, Sarah A. Vollert, Larissa Lubiana Botelho
Ecology Letters
Species Distribution and Climate Change
article

Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions—Clarification

Cailan Jeynes‐Smith, Michael Bode, Sarah A. Vollert, Larissa Lubiana Botelho
article en

Abstract

Woodstock and Harris raise concerns about generalisations in our paper 'Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions'. They implied that our conclusions are invalidated by the exclusion of density dependent compensatory feedback and the existence of automated calibration approaches with overfitting penalties-claims that overlook the broader structural issues we identified. Here, we explore their key criticism in more detail, clarify our position and explain why we continue to stand by our findings.

Ecology LettersVol. 28(10)
University of Tennessee Health Science Center (US), Queensland University of Technology (AU)
Australian Government, Queensland University of Technology
Openalex Percentile: Top 83%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
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Calibrated Ecosystem Models Cannot Predict the Consequences of Conservation Management Decisions—Clarification — Cailan Jeynes‐Smith, Michael Bode, et al. · Ecology Letters (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS