Identifying the determinants of the energy transition in departments in Colombia: An analysis with spatial econometrics

Abstract Non-technical summary This study aimed to analyse the advantages and challenges of the energy transition in an emerging economy such as Colombia via quantitative spatial panel data models using Colombian regions, which included departments from 2015 to 2023, to determine the main relationships between the energy transition and other variables, such as housing features, energy consumption and costs, fossil fuel use, mining, transportation activities, deforestation and livestock activity. Technical summary Energy transition is closely related to climate change and is helpful for achieving the main initiative in a broader strategy adopted by governments to contain global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels by the middle of the century. This study uses different empirical methods as quantitative spatial panel data models to determine variables that impact energy transition considering that the limitations of this study are related to the availability of data in every region and information on specific actions to promote energy transition in the regions. The results revealed that regions with higher levels of households, electricity coverage, energy, gasoline and diesel consumption, mining activities, transportation dynamics, deforestation rates and livestock activities generate higher carbon dioxide emissions, whereas regions with greater stable forest and electric vehicle growth rates present lower carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of this study could allow us to formulate suitable public policies to promote just energy transition that could be founded on different knowledge fields, including the industry and productive sector and its role in cleaner production, environmentally friendly infrastructure and technology, building capacities to adopt present and future technological change and create robust regulatory frameworks for their adequate operation, while considering the features and economic activities of territories and the diversification of energy sources as a strategy to promote sustainable energy transition and control climate change. Future research could concentrate on including new variables as renewable energy prices, comparative studies with other Latin American and models to promote knowledge of energy transition and clean technologies. Summary social promotion Energy transition in departments in Colombia: An analysis with spatial econometrics.