Weideverbot Enhances Fire Risk: A Case Study in the Turpan Region, China

Grassland ecosystems in arid regions are critical for ecological balance and human livelihoods but face threats from degradation and climate change. Weideverbot (grazing prohibition) is widely adopted for restoration, yet its impact on fire risk in extreme arid environments remains unclear. This study investigates how grazing prohibition affects fire risk in Turpan, China—a hyper-arid region with 16 mm annual precipitation—by analyzing vegetation dynamics (2000–2023) and fire records. To quantify changes in fuel properties and fire risk, we integrated remote sensing data (MODIS-derived Net Primary Productivity [NPP], Fractional Vegetation Cover [FVC], and Normalized Difference Moisture Index [NDMI]) and field observations, complemented by meteorological data (temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration) and local fire records. We used paired-sample t-tests to compare vegetation metrics before (2000–2010) and after (2011–2023) Weideverbot, with Cohen’s d to assess effect sizes. The results show that Weideverbot significantly increases net primary productivity (NPP: 92 to 109 g C·m−2·yr−1, Cohen’s d > 0.8) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC: 18% to 22%, Cohen’s d > 0.8), enhancing fuel load and connectivity. Vegetation water content shows no significant change (Cohen’s d < 0.2). Post-prohibition, fire frequency increased ~8-fold, driven by elevated fuel availability and regional warming/aridification. These findings indicate that Weideverbot exacerbates fire risk in hyper-arid grasslands by altering fuel dynamics. Balancing restoration and fire management requires adaptive strategies like moderate grazing, tailored to local aridity and vegetation traits.