Multiple Driving Paths for Development of Agroforestry Economy: Configuration Analysis Based on fsQCA

Amidst global climate warming and increasingly severe food security challenges, the agroforestry economy, a green ecological industry that balances ecological conservation and economic development, has attracted widespread attention. This study constructs a theoretical analytical framework based on the diamond model to systematically identify key factors influencing the development of the agroforestry economy. Using 56 practical cases from the agroforestry economy in China as samples, the study applies Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to further explore the multiple driving paths of agroforestry economic development and their supporting elements. The research findings show that (1) forest resources, technological innovation, market demand, enterprise forms, related industries, and government support do not constitute necessary conditions for the development of the agroforestry economy. The path to the development of the agroforestry economy exhibits complex and concurrent multi-faceted characteristics. (2) Technological innovation has always been at the core of all configurations, and strengthening technological innovation plays a universal role in enhancing the level of agroforestry economic development. The role of government support in the process of the development of the agroforestry economy is limited. (3) The system identified four driving paths, including the endogenous type, characterized by resource technology enterprises; the collaborative type, characterized by a resource technology market with light promotion by the government; the external expansion type, characterized by market technology enterprises; and the linkage type, characterized by market technology enterprises assisted by related industries. The consistency level of the overall solution reached 0.91, and the coverage was 0.54. It reveals the different driving mechanisms with different combinations of elements for the development of the agroforestry economy. Therefore, each region should strengthen scientific and technological research, innovation, and the transformation and application of research outcomes. It should promote the coordinated development of diverse factors, establish tailored regional development models, and explore suitable pathways for developing the agroforestry economy based on its unique resource endowments.