Filtering amplitude dependence of correlation dynamics in complex systems: Application to the cryptocurrency market
Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the q-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s). By extending traditional metrics, this approach captures correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and timescales. The method employs q-dependent minimum spanning trees (qMSTs) to visualize evolving network structures. Using minute-by-minute exchange rate data for 140 cryptocurrencies on Binance (January 2021-October 2024), a rolling window analysis reveals significant shifts in qMSTs, notably around April 2022 during the Terra/Luna crash. Initially centralized around Bitcoin (BTC), the network later decentralized, with Ethereum and others gaining prominence. Spectral analysis confirms BTC's declining dominance and increased diversification among assets. A key finding is that medium-scale fluctuations exhibit stronger correlations than large-scale ones, with qMSTs based on the latter being more decentralized. Properly exploiting such facts may offer the possibility of a more flexible optimal portfolio construction. Distance metrics highlight that major disruptions amplify correlation differences, leading to fully decentralized structures during crashes. These results demonstrate qMSTs' effectiveness in uncovering fluctuation-dependent correlations, with potential applications beyond finance, including biology, social and other complex systems.
Authors
- Marcin Wątorek (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2131-7440)
- Stanisław Drożdż (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1613-6175)
- Martin Crane (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7598-3126)
- Marija Bezbradica (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9366-5113)
- Jarosław Kwapień (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8813-9637)
Institutions
- Cracow University of Technology (PL)
- Institute of Nuclear Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences (PL)
- Dublin City University (IE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Physical review. E
- Published
- 2025-09-22
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1103/v7cl-h7xr
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.13
Funders
- Science Foundation Ireland
- Narodowym Centrum Nauki