Seismic Damage Risk Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Bridges Considering Structural Parameter Uncertainties

To accurately assess the seismic risk of bridges, this study systematically conducted probabilistic seismic hazard–fragility–risk assessments using a reinforced concrete continuous girder bridge as a case study. First, the CPSHA method from China’s fifth-generation seismic zoning framework was employed to calculate the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with 2%, 10%, and 63% exceedance probabilities over 50 years as 171.16 gal, 98.10 gal, and 28.61 gal, respectively, classifying the site as being with 0.10 g zone (basic intensity VII). Second, by innovatively integrating the Response Surface Method with Monte Carlo simulation, the study efficiently quantified the coupled effects of structural parameter and ground motion uncertainties, a finite element model was established based on OpenSees, and the seismic fragility curves were plotted. Finally, the risk probability of seismic damage was calculated based on the seismic hazard curve method. The results demonstrate that the study area encompasses 46 potential seismic sources according to China’s fifth-generation zoning. The seismic fragility curves clearly show that side piers and their bearings are generally more susceptible to damage than middle piers and their bearings. Over 50 years, the pier risk probabilities for the intact, slight, moderate, severe damage, and collapse are 68.90%, 6.22%, 15.75%, 7.86%, and 1.27%, while the corresponding probabilities of bearing are 3.54%, 44.11%, 25.64%, 7.74%, and 18.97%, indicating significantly higher bearing risks at the moderate damage and collapse levels. The method proposed in this study is applicable to various types of bridges and has high promotion and application value.