Transforming Agricultural Trade: The Role of Multilayer Bilateral Relations in China's Import Patterns

ABSTRACT This study draws on a range of key variables, including United Nations (UN) voting patterns, Partnerships, Diplomatic Visits, as well as whether China has signed The Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) agreements and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with relevant countries. Using the entropy method, the study calculates a comprehensive bilateral relationship index between China and its major agricultural trade partners. The empirical analysis explores the effects of multilayer bilateral relationships on agricultural import trade. The findings indicate that improvements in multilayer bilateral relations have a positive impact on the institutional frameworks and rules governing interactions in the political, economic, and cultural spheres. Given the strong endogeneity between bilateral relations and international trade, the robustness of the results is tested by substituting alternative bilateral relationship indicators and employing both internal and external instrumental variables for re‐estimation. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis reveals that strengthening multilayer bilateral relations with countries in the Americas and Europe (particularly developed economies) has a more significant effect on expanding the sources and scale of China's imports. Furthermore, improvements in bilateral relations are found to positively influence China's imports of plant‐based products, food, tobacco, and tobacco products. These results further substantiate the reliability of the study's conclusions.