Realignment in Asia? U.S. Regional Allies’ Responses to China–U.S. Competition

Abstract The implementation of the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy signifies a fundamental shift from a mere “power transition” to a profound “order transition”. This shift has not only intensified China–U.S. competition but also reshaped the alliance pattern in the Asia-Pacific region. Three perspectives dominate discussions on China-U.S. strategic competition and the evolving realignment patterns in the Asia-Pacific: geopolitical dynamics, institutional contestation, and geo-economic factors. However, the reconfiguration of alliances in the Asia-Pacific is inherently tied to the level of commitment demonstrated by the U.S. allies. Rather than adopting a binary stance of pure bandwagoning or complete autonomy in their policy choices toward the U.S., most states adopt a spectrum of strategic approaches, including limited alignment, neutrality, and strategic distancing. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the extent of the U.S. Indo-Pacific allies’ alignment and examines it through the perspectives of sensitivity and vulnerability across various fields. Sensitivity depends on the level of attention these allies devote to the China–U.S. competition, and vulnerability refers to the potential costs they may incur by acting against the preferences of either China or the U.S. The findings indicate that higher sensitivity increases the possibility of adherence among Asia-Pacific allies to the U.S., whereas heightened vulnerability reduces the propensity for adherence. The divergent strategic interests and varying levels of alignment among Asia-Pacific allies with the U.S. suggest that the establishment of NATO-style security architecture in the region is currently unfeasible.