Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Controls of Vegetation Net Primary Production at Greater Bay Area Outer Ecological Barrier

ABSTRACT Surrounding the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), the GBA outer ecological barrier plays a pivotal role in ensuring regional ecological security while facing significant pressure from intensive development. We evaluated the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation net primary production (NPP) from 2001 to 2022, utilizing vegetation remote sensing, land use, and meteorological data. Our results revealed that the vegetation NPP in the study area was 2.29 times that of the core area of GBA, highlighting its critical ecological function. The Eastern zone exhibited the highest vegetation NPP due to optimal light, temperature and precipitation conditions and yet faced a decrease of NPP in parts of its area, due to increasing population density. The northern West zone was a week point of ecological barriers due to relatively low precipitation and open‐pit mining operations. Notably, recent restoration projects and green mining initiatives contributed to the NPP increase in the northern West zone, where population density showed a decreasing trend. Our findings suggest that converting abandoned cropland and mines to near‐natural vegetation and integrating scattered protected areas into a larger system could enhance ecological connectivity and barrier resilience. We recommend protected area government, development control, and forest management in these critical areas.