Integrated risk assessment and mitigation strategies for geothermal energy development: technical, socio-political, and financial dimensions

Abstract Geothermal energy is a reliable, low-carbon resource, but its development is constrained by intertwined technical, socio-political, and financial risks. This paper synthesizes evidence from a systematic literature review and comparative case vignettes (Japan, East Africa, OECD countries, and Central Asia) to map the dominant risk pathways and the mitigation measures that have proven effective. Technically, uncertainty in resource discovery and drilling hazards, including rare but consequential blowouts and induced seismicity, remains pivotal. Socio-politically, projects falter when stakeholder engagement, benefit-sharing, and regulatory clarity are weak, as seen in onsen-adjacent regions of Japan or in land rights disputes in East Africa. Financially, heavy front-loaded capital requirements and outcome uncertainty increase the cost of capital, deterring private investment without risk-sharing instruments. We propose an integrated risk framework that couples: (i) robust geoscience and well‑control practices with real‑time seismic management; (ii) early, continuous engagement that secures social license through consent, transparent monitoring, and fair benefit allocation; and (iii) tailored financial instruments (insurance, guarantees, concessional finance, and stable offtake) that de‑risk exploration and stabilize revenues. Context-specific combinations of these measures can enhance drilling success, community acceptance, and bankability, potentially enabling geothermal energy to make a more substantial contribution to the clean-energy transition.