How can we maximize the environmental benefits of teleworking? — A simulation and global sensitivity analysis of English teleworkers

With the increasing popularity of teleworking after the Covid-19 pandemic and the urgent threat of climate change, there is growing interest in its potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. While some studies have explored the environmental benefits of teleworking, most fail to address the significant uncertainty associated with it. Few of these studies have applied sophisticated mathematical methods to explore how we can maximize the environmental benefits of teleworking, and even fewer have considered the distributions of input variables. Our study aims to fill these gaps based on historical data observations. This study employs simulation, global sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis methods to address the uncertainty and identify the most important variables affecting teleworkers’ transport emissions. The study analyzes travel diaries from over 100,000 individuals in the English National Travel Survey (NTS) from 2002 to 2023. Our findings reveal that minimizing trip distance and reducing non-work trips, along with optimizing business travel, can lead to substantial emission reductions among teleworkers. Additionally, the decline in private car use contributes to emission reduction. Notably, the emission gap between teleworkers and non-teleworkers is larger for those living outside London. • Teleworkers have higher transport emissions, but the emission gap is narrowing. • The main reasons are the longer distance in business trips and more non-work trips. • Private car use is the dominant travel mode explaining the emission gap. • Teleworkers do not exhibit obvious off-peak travel patterns. • Electric vehicle uptake may widen the emission gap, ceteris paribus.