The influence of information sources on process and content confidence when making Ill-structured managerial decisions

Although information is an important influence on decision confidence, disparate views exist about that influence. Engineering-derived psychological theory associates information non-negatively with confidence whereas the overconfidence literature suggests information has a non-positive influence on confidence. Previous research, however, has used information sources lacking ecological validity and almost exclusively studied well-structured decisions and single facets of confidence. Drawing on research and practice in management, decision making, and the neurosciences, the influences of technology-sourced (web) information and performance feedback information were studied as influences on confidence when making ill-structured decisions. Clear distinctions were made between judgment leading up to a decision, called process confidence, and evaluation of the final decision, called content confidence. Process-integrated web use only weakly increased either confidence while feedback significantly reduced content confidence and left process confidence little changed. This effect was amplified when the feedback clarified others' decision expectations. Within subjects, the relationship between quantified feedback and confidence, especially process confidence, was positive and increased with each decision. These findings suggest that an information resource when making ill-structured decisions has little effect on confidence but that credible, post-decision performance information can affect content confidence while process confidence remains resilient.