A Forward-Looking Analysis of the Impact of U.S. and PRC Policies Toward Taiwan Insights Drawn From Multiple Government and Think-Tank Reports

The geostrategic dynamics between the two great powers, the United States and China—especially as they pertain to Taiwan—command intense scrutiny due to their profound implications for global stability and security. This study conducts a forward-looking analysis of Sino-American Taiwan policies by reviewing reports issued by both governments and leading think tanks. Sources include U.S. Department of State Taiwan policy documents; reports from prominent U.S. research organizations such as the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution; as well as policy statements from China’s Taiwan Affairs Office under the State Council, and research from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Taiwan Research Institute, Xiamen University’s Taiwan Research Institute, and the Center for China and Globalization. We employ a futures-oriented methodology grounded in the “Four Steps to the Future” model, integrating scenario planning, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), and Emerging Issues Analysis (EIA). Scenario planning explores alternative futures shaped by critical uncertainties and driving forces; CLA probes the deeper causes of problems across litany, systemic social causes, worldview, and metaphorical layers; and EIA identifies emerging trends and weak signals that may influence the future. Together, these approaches enable a comprehensive assessment of current policies and their long-term effects. We further enrich our framework with insights from game theory and the theory of unrestricted warfare to more accurately simulate potential future scenarios. The study constructs four distinct future scenarios illustrating possible trajectories of U.S. and Chinese Taiwan policies. Each scenario incorporates varying degrees of cooperation, conflict, and external drivers, offering insights into policy choices, technological advances, and shifts in the geostrategic environment. By integrating Western and Chinese perspectives, this research provides a balanced analysis of Taiwan’s complex geopolitical challenges and offers policymakers, scholars, and stakeholders critical foresight into the range of futures that may unfold.