A Machine-Learning Approach to Quantum State Estimation

Quantum key distribution (QKD) systems represent a cornerstone of secure quantum communication, relying on post-processing procedures to generate shared keys. Among these, error correction (EC) is a critical and computationally demanding step, where the estimation of the quantum bit error rate (QBER) plays a pivotal role in optimizing code rates for LDPC-based protocols. Traditional QBER estimation methods, grounded in physical models and statistics, often struggle with real-world variability and outliers, leading to suboptimal performance. In this study, we propose a novel machine learning framework for QBER forecasting, reframing the problem as a time-series prediction task. Leveraging real-world data from quantum transmitters, we evaluated a suite of models, including gradient boosting with autoregressive components, exponential smoothing hybrids, and deep neural networks, to predict QBER with greater precision. Through extensive experiments, our approach demonstrates significant improvements in error correction efficiency compared to traditional methods, particularly under challenging conditions like system calibration drifts and non-stationary signal behavior. The results highlight the potential of lightweight and interpretable machine learning models, such as gradient-boosted exponential smoothing, to outperform complex neural architectures in real-world scenarios. This research contributes to the advancement of quantum cryptography by enabling faster and more robust key generation, with reduced information disclosure during reconciliation. Our findings open new avenues for integrating machine learning into QKD systems for adaptive and scalable quantum communication.