Mitigating Typhoon Disruptions and Enhancing Port Infrastructure Performance: A Risk Assessment Approach

Ports, positioned at the vital juncture of sea and land, are acutely vulnerable to external natural hazards such as typhoons, exposing them to significant risks and operational challenges. Assessing performance is crucial for understanding and mitigating typhoon-induced disruptions in port systems. In this study, a systemic framework of multistate model integrated with a Markov model is developed for assessing typhoon impacts on port operations. Using operational data from Shanghai Port in 2023, the research constructs transition matrices to analyze and predict the operational dynamics of port system in scenarios with and without typhoon disturbances. The paper extends the analysis by employing a system dynamics model to evaluate various risk response strategies, including typhoon preparedness and emergency response. Key findings demonstrate that strategic response measures significantly mitigate the adverse effects of typhoons on port operations, reducing the time to recover to the average operation level and the maximum reduction of infrastructure capacity. This comprehensive approach provides practical frameworks for port authorities and policymakers to implement risk management strategies under extreme weather conditions.