Reconnecting Climate Governance With Sustainable Development: Evidence From Three Decades of <scp>COP1</scp> – <scp>COP29</scp>

ABSTRACT While previous research examines specific COP outcomes or particular time periods, no study has systematically analyzed how institutional complexity relates to negotiation effectiveness across the complete 30‐year COP history using integrated quantitative‐qualitative methods. Accordingly, this study examines the institutional transformation of climate negotiations from COP1 (1995) to COP29 (2024) and its implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). Despite climate finance reaching USD 1.90 trillion in 2023, this research reveals fundamental disconnections between international commitments and implementation outcomes that systematically undermine SDG 13 targets. Through mixed‐methods analysis of three decades of quantitative data and qualitative assessments, this study identifies a profound shift from consensus‐building cooperation to fragmented finance‐centric negotiations. This transformation has created structural barriers to achieving SDG 13.2 (integrating climate measures into national policies), evidenced by fossil fuel subsidies growing to USD 1.10 trillion annually—equivalent to 86% of total climate finance. The empirical analysis demonstrates that increased institutional complexity correlates strongly and negatively with negotiation effectiveness, suggesting that proliferating mechanisms impede rather than facilitate climate action. Most critically, regression analysis reveals that climate vulnerability negatively predicts finance allocation, meaning the most vulnerable countries receive less support per capita—directly contradicting SDG 13.B mandates to support least developed countries and small island developing states. These findings indicate that current climate governance systematically fails to build resilience (SDG 13.1), integrate climate policy coherently (SDG 13.2), or support vulnerable communities equitably (SDG 13.B). COP30 in Belém, Brazil presents a critical opportunity to address these failures through institutional simplification, vulnerability‐based finance reform, and restored cooperative frameworks. This research contributes empirical evidence that simplified governance structures and reformed allocation mechanisms are essential for effective climate action aligned with sustainable development objectives.