Carbon emission reduction potential calculation method based on rapid selection of carbon emission factors and time series analysis

The current calculation method struggles to ensure data integrity and consistency and overlooks the combined effects of other influencing factors, leading to results that fail to fully reflect the actual carbon emission reduction situation. Therefore, a method for calculating carbon emission reduction potential based on rapid selection of carbon emission factors and time series analysis is proposed. A comprehensive and systematic carbon emission inventory is established, carbon emission coefficients are accounted for, carbon emission intensity is calculated, and a real-time carbon emission calculation model is constructed. Using the autoregressive distributed lag model from time series analysis, a model for predicting energy consumption and industrial output based on electricity consumption is developed. Multiple methods for selecting energy carbon emission factors are introduced, the most reasonable carbon emission factor is selected, a carbon emission efficiency evaluation model is constructed, and the carbon reduction potential is calculated. Experimental results indicate that the carbon emissions per 10,000 yuan of output value obtained by the proposed method remain below 0.8 t, demonstrating the highest emission reduction potential across all years. The carbon emission factor remains lower than 65, and the carbon emission efficiency exceeds 0.8, reaching a maximum of 0.98.