Nature Futures Framework scenarios reveal contrasting landscape connectivity for European mammal translocations

Conservation translocations are increasingly critical for counteracting local extinctions, yet their success depends on a wide range of ecological, social, and environmental factors. Among these, long-term landscape connectivity that enables population persistence and dispersal is particularly important for ensuring population viability. We assessed functional connectivity for 57 translocation release sites of 20 mammal species across Europe under current conditions and three alternative scenarios based on the Nature Futures Framework: ‘Nature for Nature’, ‘Nature for Society’, and ‘Nature as Culture’. Using circuit theory and species-specific movement cost values derived from IUCN habitat classifications, we modelled and compared the movement potential from release sites across landscapes with different extents for current and future land system scenarios. Future connectivity is fundamentally shaped by societal values driving land use decisions, creating distinct ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ among translocated populations. Species-specific analyses showed that grassland specialists, such as the European ground squirrel, benefit from projected increases in low-intensity grasslands, while farmland species, like the European hamster, face connectivity constraints due to forest expansion and urban growth. Large carnivores, including the Iberian lynx, showed increased resistance under scenarios with agricultural intensification and urban expansion. Overall, even sustainability-oriented development pathways may yield contrasting outcomes across species, highlighting the importance of incorporating future land use projections into translocation planning. Our framework provides conservation practitioners with a practical tool for preliminary assessments of functional connectivity, helping to identify release sites likely to remain connected under alternative futures and to prioritize habitat management actions that support long-term translocation success in Europe.