Development and Calibration of a Spatial Model for the Analysis of Paleolithic Archaeological Potential in the Duero Basin of the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract The development of spatial modeling has made it possible to address the problem of the spatial location of archaeological sites in the territory with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Applications range from predicting the density and distribution of archaeological sites to modeling and understanding the occupation patterns of past cultures. However, theory-driven deductive strategies for site location modeling are needed in cases where the sample of sites is not large enough to apply statistical methods. This paper presents a methodological proposal for a multicriteria analysis using GIS with expert consultation by the Delphi method to develop maps of archaeological potential. This methodology is applied to the Eresma-Riaza interfluve in the Duero basin, a geomorphologically varied region with significant Paleolithic evidence. To do this, we designed a GIS-based multicriteria analysis to (1) model optimal or unfavourable zones for human occupation; (2) evaluate areas with good or bad preservation of archaeological sites; (3) infer the archaeological potential of our study area. To evaluate the model, we did a cross-check with the Archaeological Inventory of the region. The spatial coincidence of a high number of sites with medium and high potential areas for Paleolithic occupations confirms the usefulness of these analyses not only for investigation purposes but also for urban planning and Heritage preservation.