S296 Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Pancreatitis in the Middle East and North Africa Over the Past 30 Years

Introduction: Pancreatitis imposes a significant global burden due to associated morbidity and mortality. Therefore, evaluating the temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatitis in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is of paramount significance as it enables effective risk stratification. Methods: Data was retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database to evaluate the trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of pancreatitis in the MENA region for the period 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint analysis was performed to calculate the annual percent change and the average annual percent change (AAPC). Stratification on a national level was performed to evaluate for any national disparities. Results: Over the past 3 decades, an estimated total of 2,870,093 pancreatitis cases with a 52.8% male predominance were reported across the MENA region. A statistically significant decline in the ASIR was observed across the MENA region with an AAPC of -0.096 (95% CI -0.099 to -0.092, P < 0.001). Stratification on a national revealed variations in the trends in the ASIR. A statistically significant decrease in the ASIR was noted in the vast majority of nations with the highest decline observed in Turkey (AAPC -0.386, 95% CI -0.393 to -0.379, P < 0.001), followed by Iraq (AAPC -0.270, 95% CI -0.273 to -0.267, P < 0.001) and Bahrain (AAPC -0.251, 95% CI -0.259 to -0.242, P < 0.001). Nonetheless, Afghanistan (AAPC 0.064), Egypt (AAPC 0.021), Jordan (AAPC 0.207), and Yemen (AAPC 0.043) observed a statistically significant incline in the ASIR. An estimated total of 59,686 pancreatitis-related deaths with a 52.6% female predominance were reported across the MENA region for the period 1990 to 2019. A statistically significant decline in the ASMR was observed across the MENA region with an AAPC of -0.107 (95% CI -0.173 to -0.049, P = 0.004). Stratification on a national level revealed variation in the trends. Algeria, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen experienced a statistically significant incline in the ASMR, while Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey experienced a statistically significant decline in the ASMR. Conclusion: Over the past 3 decades, variations in the ASIR and ASMR of pancreatitis were observed across the MENA region. These findings warrant prompt recognition to identify the driving factors behind these trends.