Surviving in a Warming and Fragmented World: Long‐Term Population Dynamics of the Lizard <i>Gonatodes humeralis</i>

ABSTRACT Climate change presents significant challenges to species survival; however, the long‐term effects on tropical lizard populations remain poorly understood. Previous studies have predicted contrasting outcomes, with some forecasting a high risk of extinction due to rising temperatures, while others suggest greater resilience in tropical habitats. To address this gap, we analysed the population dynamics of G. humeralis at two time points, spaced 20 years apart, in Central‐Eastern Amazonia, focusing on how temperature increases and habitat quality affect population growth rates. We surveyed G. humeralis across 24 sampling plots, each with 1000 m of trails, in 2001 and 2021, to assess the impact of high temperatures (restriction hours), forest area, isolation from continuous forest, differences in invertebrate biomass and differences in forest cover between 2021 and 2001 on G. humeralis population growth rates using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Our findings indicate that the G. humeralis population increased significantly, with 192 individuals recorded in 2001 and 452 in 2021, demonstrating resilience to increases in temperature during that period. While growth rates were slightly impacted by higher temperatures, the overall population did not decline, contradicting previous extinction predictions due to climate change. Moreover, the analysed environmental variables did not significantly affect the species' population growth rates. Our data clearly indicate that G. humeralis is resilient to long‐term habitat fragmentation and that the predictions of previous models are not supported by our findings, suggesting that the extinction of the species before 2070 may be less likely than previously proposed.