S168 Global Burden and Trends of Pancreatitis Attributable to High Alcohol Consumption in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990 to 2021: A Comparative Risk Assessment Study

Introduction: Pancreatitis is a debilitating condition with substantial global health impact, and alcohol misuse remains one of its most preventable drivers. Despite decades of public health interventions, the burden of alcohol-related pancreatitis remains poorly quantified across diverse geographies. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 comparative risk assessment framework, we quantified the burden of pancreatitis attributable to high alcohol consumption across 204 countries and territories. Population-attributable fractions were computed by comparing country-specific exposure distributions of alcohol consumption to theoretical minimum risk exposure levels. These population-attributable fractions were applied to age-standardized rates and absolute counts of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to estimate attributable burden. We analyzed trends over time using the annualized percentage change in age-standardized rates, stratified by age, sex, location, and year. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global number of deaths due to pancreatitis attributable to high alcohol use rose from 9,971 (95% UI: 6,888–13,403) to 18,749 (12,763–24,677). DALYs increased from 401,671 (280,352–543,581) to 699,335 (486,293–924,031), while YLDs rose from 44,526 (19,206–84,848) to 61,240 (26,772–116,067). Regionally, the steepest increase in total deaths was observed in the Low SDI region with a 215% rise, followed by Low-Middle SDI (210%), South Asia (210%), Sub-Saharan Africa (202%), and Middle SDI (148%). For YLDs, the most significant increases occurred in South Asia (317%) and Low SDI regions (265%). Age-wise, individuals aged 55 and older experienced the highest rise in deaths (103%), followed by those aged 20–54 (73%) and <20 years (15%). Across sexes, men exhibited a disproportionately higher increase in burden compared to women: deaths rose by 96% in men vs 43% in women, DALYs by 80% vs 34%, and YLDs by 40% vs 27%, respectively. Conclusion: The burden of pancreatitis attributable to high alcohol consumption has escalated markedly over the past 3 decades, with the sharpest increases observed in low and middle SDI regions, older adults, and men. These findings highlight a shifting global pattern, where alcohol-related pancreatitis is no longer confined to high-income settings but is emerging as a growing public health concern in resource-limited regions.