Spatiotemporal patterns of secondary vegetation dynamics and potential regional drivers in Pará state, Brazilian Amazon

Secondary vegetation regrowth in the tropics is influenced by natural and socioeconomic factors, but knowledge gaps remain regarding the multitude of drivers and the effectiveness of policies shaping its regional distribution and spatiotemporal dynamics. This study aims to fill part of this gap by analysing secondary vegetation cover in Pará, Brazil, with a focus on its trajectories and determinants. Using geoprocessing tools and a two-tier statistical framework ( stepwise and spatial lag regressions, complemented by a difference-in-differences adaptation), we examined the abundance and distribution of secondary vegetation at three points in time (2010, 2015, and 2018) and assessed gains and losses across two intervals (2010–2015 and 2015–2018). From a literature review, 39 explanatory variables were selected and grouped into five clusters, of which 25 showed significant effects. No cluster was entirely disregarded, underscoring the need for diversification in modelling drivers. Despite a net forest loss, secondary vegetation increased overall, particularly in pioneer fronts of deforestation and in the Northeastern mesoregion of Pará. In the second interval, however, even after the implementation of the normative ruling to protect secondary vegetation over five years of age, regrowth rates declined. Our results reveal both the opportunities and regulatory challenges of managing secondary vegetation as a key component of forest transition processes. These findings advance the understanding of forest dynamics and provide insights for restoration planning and policy under the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030). • Secondary vegetation (SV) increased in Pará between 2010 and 2018, despite overall net forest loss. • SV post-2015 growth rates declined even after the implementation of a forest protection policy. • SV dynamics were particularly strong in pioneer settlement fronts and in the long-settled Northeastern mesoregion of Pará. • Twenty-five out of 39 measured socioecological factors showed significant correlations with SV extent and change. • The findings underscore the need to diversify socioecological indicators across multiple thematic dimensions in research.