Land cover change and its effects on catchment hydrology: A quantitative analysis using SWAT in Horní Úpa

The changes in land cover, particularly in vegetation, directly influence regional water systems through various processes and have potential to alter not only microclimates and local hydrological regimes, but also local ecosystems and downstream water resources. This article investigates the interplay between land cover change and hydrological processes over a 30-year period in the mid-latitude mountainous catchment. Key vegetation trends were identified by supervised classification of geometrically and radiometrically corrected Landsat satellite imagery. Specifically, the replacement of coniferous forests with transitional woodland-shrub and a gradual increase in mixed forests, influenced by disturbance events, such as windthrows and bark beetle outbreaks, were observed. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated using long-term discharge data, allowing for the simulation of land cover scenarios. Results suggest that land cover changes exerted a limited influence on total water balance, indicating a degree of hydrological resilience of the catchment. However, they affected the partitioning of runoff components, such as direct flow, subsurface lateral flow, and groundwater recharge. The study demonstrates the value of integrating the satellite-based land cover analysis with process-based modelling to understand long-term land-hydrology interactions in complex terrain. The findings underscore the importance of improving spatial resolution, dynamic vegetation modelling, and soil-vegetation parameterization for future assessments under changing environmental conditions. This research contributes to a growing body of knowledge essential for sustainable water resource management in sensitive mountain regions.