Mathematical modeling using real driving data for decision making in city buses electrification

• E-bus autonomy analysis employing vehicle modeling, statistics and real driving data. • The energy consumption of an electric bus is increased at speeds lower than 10 km/h. • The HVAC can increase the energy consumption of an electric bus by up to 56 %. • 2.5–5 % energy savings can be achieved in case of an electric bus eco-driving. • Minimize an electric bus downtime chance by applying a 45 min opportunity charging. Battery electric buses have the potential to mitigate carbon emissions from the public transport sector. The electrification of city bus lines is a challenging process though, requiring (among others) careful assessment of the electric vehicles’ energy consumption and the definition of the charging strategy. In this respect, the scope of the present work is to demonstrate a comprehensive methodology for developing strategic insights into the energy consumption and the charging strategy of battery electric buses. For this purpose, an innovative framework, including state of the art longitudinal dynamics-based vehicle modeling, statistical methods (sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation and design of experiments), as well as real diving data is applied. This approach allowed for the quantification of the uncertainty associated with the impact of stochastic electric bus operation on the vehicle’s energy consumption and autonomy. At the same time, the proposed framework allowed for a thorough optimization of the charging strategy of the fleet, taking into account the specific characteristics of bus lines to be electrified. Ultimately, the conclusions of this work are generalized and translated into actionable items to provide policy makers and transport operators with strategic insights, which can support decision making relevant to the electrification of city bus lines.