Cruel utopia of the seas? Multiple risks challenge the singular hydrogen hype in Finnish maritime logistics

To address the global climate crisis, maritime logistics are undergoing a transition away from fossil-based energy sources. The transition is envisaged to be both green (involving renewables) and digital (involving various kinds of digitalization). Much of the hope rests on the new hydrogen economy , involving the build-up of infrastructure for hydrogen-derived alternative fuels such as methanol and ammonia. Indeed, the new hydrogen economy is often portrayed as set to revolutionize maritime transport. The hope behind the hype reflects a belief in the performativity of hypes: some technological phenomenon will eventually materialise in innovation and business practices. In this paper, we critically analyse the current hydrogen hype in the field of Finnish maritime logistics as a paradigmatic case of performative techno-optimism. Based on causal network analysis and thematic analysis of expert interviews and workshop data, we argue that the phenomenon of performative techno-optimism is more nuanced than hitherto presented in the related literature. We showcase a variety of stances along a spectrum ranging from radical optimism to radical pessimism. Furthermore, our causal network analysis indicates that the current green and digital transition of maritime transport is caught in a systemic catch-22: transitioning to alternative fuels in maritime logistics faces a lock-in of between overly cautious demand for alternative fuels leading to overly cautious investment in supply, which only secures the modest demand. Finally, our thematic analysis of techno-optimist stances suggests the following two major ways out of the systemic dilemma: large-scale technological innovations and global regulatory solutions.