The role of climate change on hydroelectric energy from renewable energy sources: A case study of Sakarya Basin, Türkiye

This research is carried out by applying MRLI method to energy data produced at HEPPs located in Sakarya basin and precipitation and temperature data. This method is being carried out for first time for energy data. Temperature data generally showed increasing trends at low risk levels, while in some stations, decreasing trends were observed at high risk levels. Precipitation data varied by station; decreasing trends were prominent at all risk levels in Sakarya and Kütahya, while both increasing and decreasing trends were observed in stations Düzce and Ankara. Energy data showed distinct trends at different risk levels, with increases observed at some plants at low risk levels, while decreases were observed at others at all levels. These findings suggest that the impacts of climate change on hydroelectric power production are nonlinear and depend on risk level. MRLI reveals contrasting trends at different risk levels that classical linear methods cannot reveal.