Structural dynamics of embodied carbon in global manufacturing trade: A network-based microlevel analysis

This study significantly enhances the understanding of carbon emissions embodied in trade (CEET) through the application of social network analysis (SNA). We construct the Carbon Emissions Embodied Network of Manufacturing Trade (CEENM) and employ three innovative methodologies for analysis: (1) blockmodel analysis to identify agglomeration patterns, core–periphery structures, and hierarchical relationships; (2) motif detection to explore the interaction patterns within CEENM; and (3) Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM) to identify structural determinants. Key findings include: (1) the evolution of the CEENM from a bipolar to a tripartite structure centered on Germany, the United States, and China, accompanied by dynamic reorganization; (2) emerging economies such as China, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa becoming central net recipients of carbon transfers; and (3) the evolution of CEENM being shaped not only by the intrinsic economic and emission profiles of individual countries but also by bilateral socio-economic ties and the enduring impact of historical path dependencies. These structural characteristics provide a critical foundation for designing and implementing collaborative mechanisms aimed at advancing global carbon governance. • Constructed the Carbon Emissions Embodied Network of Manufacturing Trade (CEENM). • Multi-method analysis of CEENM using blockmodel, motif, and TERGM. • Emerging economies like China and Brazil are central hubs for carbon transfer. • Reciprocal carbon emission relationships among nations are growing. • CEENM evolution is driven by socioeconomic ties and historical dependencies.