Agroforestry as a climate change adaptation strategy: Evidence from Ghana's cocoa sector

In sub-Saharan Africa, where most farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, climate change poses serious threats. Agroforestry offers a promising adaptation strategy, with well-documented ecological and economic benefits. Yet, evidence on its role in enhancing household-level resilience to adverse weather events, such as drought, remains limited. We assess how decreases in rainfall affect cocoa yield among agroforestry adopters and non-adopters in Ghana and examine whether these effects vary by regional climatic suitability. We combine a two-wave panel data set of 365 cocoa-producing households with satellite-based climate data. We use a correlated random effects model to estimate the differential effects of reduced rainfall on yield by agroforestry status. To test for heterogeneity, we re-estimate the model for two subsamples located in climatically suitable and less suitable cocoa-growing regions. We find that on average, agroforestry adopters are less severely affected by reduced rainfall. A one-millimeter decrease in rainfall significantly reduces yield by 2.17 kg/ha for adopters and 2.84 kg/ha for non-adopters. However, when disaggregating between regions, this effect only holds in climatically suitable regions. In less suitable, drier regions, we do not find any significant effects. Our findings suggest that agroforestry could be used as a strategy for adapting to climate change, although more research is needed to understand the conditions under which it would be most effective. We are among the first to use household panel data to econometrically assess the effects of reduced rainfall on yield based on agroforestry adoption in the cocoa sector. • On average, cocoa agroforestry adopters are less affected by reduced rainfall. • However, effects are consistent only in climatically suitable cocoa-growing regions. • We find no significant effects in drought-prone, less suitable regions. • Agroforestry's effectiveness may depend on local climate conditions. • Further research is needed to identify enabling conditions for success.