Is the cloud absorption of solar radiation still underestimated notably by current model-based reanalyses?

Cloud absorption of solar radiation strongly influences Earth’s radiation balance and climate change. Whether numerical models underestimate this absorption compared with observations has long been a highly debated issue in cloud–radiation research. Using state-of-the-art model-derived reanalyses, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2, and the latest collocated satellite-surface observation in 2012–2023, we reinvestigate this controversial issue. The results demonstrate the observed cloud absorption of solar radiation still notably exceeds the modeled (regardless of model products), but their discrepancy has dropped a lot, particularly for NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF ERA5. While a further investigation is needed, the reduced discrepancy may reflect the progress of shortwave radiation schemes in models, notably the integration of Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG) and the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA). Additionally, it is noteworthy that there is not a perfect approach to obtaining the observed cloud absorption, and particularly the water vapor difference between clear and cloudy skies will often result in its unrealistic overestimation. If the impact from the water vapor difference is corrected, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2 underestimate globally-mean cloud absorption by approximately 8.26, 14.50 and 16.51 W/m 2 , respectively.

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Publication Details

Journal
Advances in Climate Change Research
Published
2025-10-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.003
Primary Topic
Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
Type
article
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article

Is the cloud absorption of solar radiation still underestimated notably by current model-based reanalyses?

Han Ma, Xiaohua Hao, Chunlin Huang, Guojiang Wang et al.
Advances in Climate Change Research
Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
article

Is the cloud absorption of solar radiation still underestimated notably by current model-based reanalyses?

Han Ma, Xiaohua Hao, Chunlin Huang, Guojiang Wang, Guanghui Huang, Pengfei Zhao, Xufeng Wang, Youjing Fu, Ziyan Huang
article en

Abstract

Cloud absorption of solar radiation strongly influences Earth’s radiation balance and climate change. Whether numerical models underestimate this absorption compared with observations has long been a highly debated issue in cloud–radiation research. Using state-of-the-art model-derived reanalyses, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2, and the latest collocated satellite-surface observation in 2012–2023, we reinvestigate this controversial issue. The results demonstrate the observed cloud absorption of solar radiation still notably exceeds the modeled (regardless of model products), but their discrepancy has dropped a lot, particularly for NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF ERA5. While a further investigation is needed, the reduced discrepancy may reflect the progress of shortwave radiation schemes in models, notably the integration of Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG) and the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA). Additionally, it is noteworthy that there is not a perfect approach to obtaining the observed cloud absorption, and particularly the water vapor difference between clear and cloudy skies will often result in its unrealistic overestimation. If the impact from the water vapor difference is corrected, NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF ERA5, and NASA MERRA2 underestimate globally-mean cloud absorption by approximately 8.26, 14.50 and 16.51 W/m 2 , respectively.

Advances in Climate Change ResearchVol. 17(1)
Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (CN), Lanzhou University (CN), University of Hong Kong (HK)
Openalex Percentile: Top 84%
Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
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