US-China Tension, Geopolitical Risks and Oil Price Uncertainty: Evidence From Fourier-QARDL Approach

This study investigates the influence of US-China conflict and geopolitical risks on oil price uncertainty by employing the Fourier-QARDL methodology and analysing monthly data from January 1993 to January 2024. The results indicate that political tensions and instability have a substantial impact on increasing oil price volatility, with asymmetric effects being more notable during periods of heightened conflict. Quantile analysis demonstrates that extreme price fluctuations are particularly responsive to these risks, highlighting the critical role of geopolitical factors in energy market uncertainty and emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive risk management strategies.