Future canola yields under different climate scenarios in Saskatchewan, Canada

Canola is the largest crop in Saskatchewan and critically important to the province's agricultural industry. Yields are sensitive to high temperatures and likely to be impacted by future climate change. To estimate the future effects of climate change (2025–2100) on canola yields, data from 26 climate models for three future emissions pathways (shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 1–2.6 (low), 2–4.5 (medium), and 5–8.5 (high)) along with predictive soil mapping results was used to build a predictive model. Historical yield data was modelled as a function of soil organic carbon, clay, and sand along with maximum and minimum July temperature, days with maximum temperatures above 30 °C, nights with minimum temperatures above 16 °C, and mean total annual precipitation. Modelled outcomes indicate that yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation and decline when mean daily July maximum temperatures were above 28.5 °C. Under SSP1-2.6, canola yields remain relatively stable with a median decline of 39 kg ha −1 (2%). Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, canola yields were estimated to decline by 137 kg ha −1 (6%) and 349 kg ha −1 (15%), respectively. The distribution of yield losses was not equal with the greatest decreases occurring in the Black soil zone.