Mitigating Engineering Phase Delays in EPC Projects: Monte Carlo Simulation Method with Project XYZ

The complexity of the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project was compounded by the significant risk associated with importing 50% of materials and equipment, critically influencing the design phase and timeline estimation. Additional challenges during the engineering stage included misalignments in manpower planning and the need for highly skilled technical specialists, affecting productivity and the quality of work. Therefore, this research aimed to mitigate engineering phase delay in the EPC project using the Monte Carlo simulation method with Project XYZ. A risk factor analysis validated by three experts obtained 43 variables using a qualitative method to form the basis of a questionnaire distributed to 34 respondents. This questionnaire used a Likert scale to assign probability and impact values integrated into a probability–impact matrix. The analysis identified 24 valid risk variables, with five being dominant with a risk value of 0.56. The most impactful risk variables were insufficient labor skill capability, unclear design, delay in providing detailed drawings, errors in calculating material requirements, and insufficient funding allocation. A quantitative Monte Carlo simulation estimated potential delay, averaging 26 weeks, with a range from 24 to 29 weeks. Risk mitigation strategies focused on preventing dominant risks to minimize project delay. This risk analysis was highly beneficial for EPC contractors, particularly during the engineering phase, and also enabled owners to understand EPC risks in the engineering stage.