The green vector of the World economy’s development and its reflection in international trade

For more than 30 years, the world community has been discussing the need for green global economic development. The role of international trade is increasing in fostering global green transition. The study’s main purpose is to identify trends in international trade in green goods based on its volume and structure analysis, ascertain potential risk factors that hinder green exports. The authors consider green trade as a tool for implementation and of the green direction state and indicator in the global economic development. The total volume of green trade was calculated based on 226 commodity sub-codes (IMF data). Focus of the study was on exports analysis of electric vehicles, nuclear reactors, electric generating plants for wind farms, biodegradable packaging, industrial waste for recycling and use. These groups characterize individual green sectors’ global development. The analysis systematized green agenda evolution and theoretical approaches to its justification; identified key trends in green exports and the leading countries in “volume of green goods exports” and “share in green goods global exports” (China, Germany, USA, Japan, etc.). The largest contribution to green trade is made by 3 sub-items: industrial waste for recycling and use (12.5% of global green exports), electric vehicles (9.6%) and solar panels (4.2%). It was concluded that the contribution of green trade to the world GDP is insignificant (1.8%) at the present time with its slow growth rate (by 0.3 percentage points in 2010-2021). However, the share of green trade in world exports is already quite noticeable and has reached 8% (comparable to world food exports). Global green products exports showed steady growth in 2010-2021. Three factors’ groups were substantiated as the main obstacles to the green trade development: institutional, technical, and geopolitical. Each of these groups can initiate green protectionism not so much in a defensive as in offensive form.