Navigating the Future: AI, Global Supply Chains, and ESG for Sustainable Development

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of global supply chain pressures (GSCP), artificial intelligence (AI), economic complexity (EC), and sustainability uncertainty (SUI) on the productive capacities index (PCI) in the United States from 2018 to 2024. Employing advanced econometric techniques—including quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR), cross‐quantilogram (CQ), and wavelet‐quantile correlation (WQC)—the analysis assesses variable effects, directional predictability, causal relationships, and multiscale correlations. The findings indicate that AI significantly enhances productive capacity through technological innovation, automation, and efficiency gains. In contrast, GSCP and ESG‐related uncertainties (captured by EC and SUI) hinder productive capacities by exacerbating operational disruptions and investment risks across US industries. These results underscore the necessity for strategic policy interventions that leverage AI's potential to mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities and sustainability challenges. To bolster productive capacities, we recommend that US policymakers prioritize fostering a dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, promoting technological innovation, strengthening infrastructure resilience, and investing in human capital development. This study provides critical insights for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers navigating the interplay of technological advancement, global supply chain volatility, and sustainability in shaping economic productivity.