Drought diminishes ecosystem service supply and exacerbates trade-offs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Climate change has intensified drought frequency globally, driving the need to assess its impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) for sustainability planning. This study investigated meteorological drought thresholds and ES interactions in China's Yangtze River Economic Belt. Results demonstrated that extreme droughts reduced ES provisioning capacity, with significant trade-offs between water retention and food supply (<i>R</i> = -0.25, <i>p</i> < 0.001), and between soil conservation and food supply (<i>R</i> = -0.32, <i>p</i> < 0.001). Water retention and soil conservation were more susceptible to drought, whereas carbon sequestration was less affected. Constraint line analysis revealed that ES thresholds predominantly occurred under non-drought conditions. Mechanistic analyses found that under high drought loadings, climatic factors exerted a significant negative impact on ESs. This study provides a scientific basis for regional drought adaptation strategies and the coordinated management of ESs, offering references for optimizing land use patterns and enhancing ecosystem sustainability under climate change.