Construction and validation of an oral frailty risk prediction model for community-dwelling older adults

The aim of this study was to explore the factors that influence oral frailty (OF) in community - dwelling older adults, and to construct and validate a risk prediction model for oral frailty. Through univariate and logistic regression analyses, we identified predictors of oral frailty in community-dwelling older adults. A nomogram was drawn based on the logistic regression results, and the predictive ability of the model was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, and calibration curves. Variables in the model included history of falls within one year, sarcopenia risk, oral health knowledge, oral health beliefs and oral health behaviours (P < 0.05). The model showed good discrimination; the AUC for the training, validation and test groups was 0.895 (95% CI = 0.854–0.937), 0.880 (95% CI = 0.816–0.944) and 0.835 (95% CI = 0.760–0.910), respectively; H-L test results were χ2 = 6.126(P = 0.633), χ2 = 7.475( P = 0.486), χ2 = 5.603(P = 0.692), respectively.The calibration ability of all three groups of models was good. The predictive nomogram model constructed in this study exhibits excellent discrimination and calibration capabilities. It can accurately and conveniently screen the elderly population with oral frailty in the community, providing a reference for healthcare professionals to conduct early identification and implement prevention and control measures.