Empirical assessment of climate change effect on cereal crop production in the East African Community

Cereal crops are integral to Africa’s agricultural systems and play a vital role in ensuring food security. This study examines the effects of climate change, renewable energy consumption, trade openness, arable land, and rural population on cereal crop production in the East African Community (EAC). Using annual panel data, the study applies econometric techniques to analyze these relationships. Results show that CO2 emissions, serving as a proxy of climate change, positively and significantly influence cereal production, due to the CO2 fertilization effect, which enhances photosynthesis and crop growth in the short term. Renewable energy consumption has a positive but statistically insignificant impact. Trade openness exhibits a negative and significant effect, attributed to increased imports of cheaper cereals from technologically advanced countries, which reduce local competitiveness. Arable land availability significantly boosts cereal production, emphasizing its critical role in agricultural productivity. Similarly, the rural population positively and significantly affects cereal output by providing essential agricultural labor. This study uniquely re-examines CO2 emissions—where prior research offers conflicting evidence—alongside other underexplored determinants of cereal production in the EAC, providing fresh regional insights. EAC policy makers should adopt climate-smart agriculture, support local farmers through targeted trade and subsidy measures, expand arable land sustainably, and improve rural labor productivity via training and mechanization.