An introduction to the demography of genocide: The Timor-Leste case study

This paper introduces the demography of genocide, an interdisciplinary branch of demographic research that examines the impact of genocides on populations. This is achieved by defining the field and discussing its limitations, such as a limited institutional and methodological framework and a lack of data sources. The analytical section presents a case study on the demographic effects of the Indonesian occupation of Timor-Leste, starting with the historical context. It then analyzes population dynamics, mortality, fertility, and population structures based on demographic indicators, primarily derived from the World Population Prospects 2024 database. The findings show that the genocide profoundly affected Timor-Leste’s population development, primarily through a significant deterioration in mortality, which was highly uneven across age and gender. Excess mortality was particularly pronounced among children and men. Large-scale migration waves occurred, indirectly influencing demographic processes. The impact on fertility is complex and cannot be generalized, but the decline in female mortality likely contributed to fertility increases. The simultaneous effect of these factors significantly altered the structure of the population, leading to sharp fluctuations in the sex ratio, an acceleration of population aging, and disruptions in age distribution. Total population losses due to the occupation were estimated at 177,000 people using a counterfactual population projection.