Estimating Fire Response Times and Planning Optimal Routes Using GIS and Machine Learning Techniques

This study proposes an integrated, data-driven framework that couples Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with machine-learning techniques to improve fire-department response efficiency in an urban setting. Using an initial archive of 10,421 geocoded fire incident reports collected in Kayseri, Turkey (2018–2023), together with an OpenStreetMap-derived road network, we first generated an “ideal route-time” feature for every incident via Dijkstra shortest-path analysis. After data cleaning and routability checks, 7421 high-quality cases formed the modelling base. Two regression models—eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Support Vector Regression (SVR)—were trained to predict dispatch-to-arrival times. On the held-out test set, XGBoost yielded the best performance, achieving a mean absolute error of 1.67 min, a root-mean-square error of 2.21 min, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.46, and 78.41% accuracy within a ±3 min tolerance. Predicted times were combined with real-time Dijkstra routing to visualize fastest paths and station service areas in GIS, revealing that densely populated districts are reachable within five minutes while peripheral zones exceed ten. The results demonstrate that embedding network-derived features within advanced ML models markedly improves temporal forecasts and that the combined GIS-ML framework can support rapid, evidence-based decision-making, ultimately helping to minimize loss of life and property in urban fire emergencies.