Evaluating the Risk of Population Exposure and Socio-Cultural Shifts in Ethnic Tibetan Areas Under Future Extreme Climate Change

Under global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have markedly increased. As one of the most climate-sensitive and ecologically fragile regions in the world, the Tibetan Plateau faces mounting environmental and demographic challenges. This study integrates multi-model ensemble simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with population projection data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Three extreme climate indices—very wet days precipitation (R95p), warm days (TX90p), and consecutive dry days (CDDs)—were analyzed to assess future changes in climate extremes (2021–2100) and their relationships with demographic dynamics across Tibetan ethnic areas. The results indicate that, under high-emission conditions, both R95p and TX90p increase significantly, while CDDs slightly decreases, though drought risks remain pronounced in central regions. Over the same period, the total population is projected to decline by nearly 60%, with substantial differences in climate risk exposure across groups: working-age adults and less-educated individuals experience the highest exposure before mid-century, followed by a decline, whereas the elderly and highly educated populations will show continuously increasing exposure, stabilizing by the end of the century. The transformation of population patterns is reshaping socio-cultural structures, highlighting the need for culturally adaptive governance to ensure the sustainability of Tibetan ethnic communities. These findings enhance our understanding of the coupled interactions among climate change, population dynamics, and cultural transitions, providing a scientific basis for integrated adaptation strategies to promote sustainable development across the Tibetan Plateau.