PROJECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN BRAZZAVILLE, REPUBLIC OF CONGO: A CMIP6-BASED ANALYSIS

Over the recent decades, Brazzaville in the Republic of Congo has experienced significant shifts in temperature and precipitation, including notable changes in both mean values and extremes. Understanding the evolving characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes, such as their frequency, seasonal timing, spatial extent, and severity, is essential for mitigating risks to the economy, society, and environment. This study analyzes projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events using high-resolution CMIP6 climate simulations across three time periods: historical (1981–2010), mid-century (2031–2060), and late-century (2071–2100). Climate data were processed in MATLAB using quantile mapping, statistical downscaling, and trend and correlation analyses. Findings reveal a robust warming trend, with mean annual temperatures projected to rise by up to 3.5 ∘ C ([Formula: see text]C) by the end of the century, accompanied by a rise in extreme heat events exceeding the 95th percentile. Seasonal rainfall projections suggest a 6.8% increase during the peak wet months and a 10.3% decline in the dry season, leading to heightened seasonal imbalances. The likelihood of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase by 14.7%, while the number of consecutive dry days (CDDs) may rise by about 8 days per year, indicating greater drought risk. These results underscore the urgent need for localized adaptation strategies, particularly in light of the increasing probability of compound events such as concurrent hot–dry or wet–hot extremes under future climate scenarios.