National- and State-level SARS-CoV-2 Immunity Trends From January 2020 to December 2023: a Mathematical Modeling Analysis
A new wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations began near the end of 2023, with the introduction of the JN.1 variant. This upturn suggests that the U.S. population remains at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 disease despite the high level of cumulative exposure in the United States. This decline in effective protection is likely due to both waning and continued viral evolution.
Authors
- Melanie H. Chitwood (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9289-5694)
- Nicole A. Swartwood (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4116-9243)
- Masahiko Haraguchi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3250-5746)
- Joshua A. Salomon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3929-5515)
- Ted Cohen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8091-7198)
- Nicolas A. Menzies (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2571-016X)
- Fayette Klaassen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9488-2571)
- Rafael Lopes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9416-6145)
Institutions
- Yale University (US)
- Stanford Health Care (US)
- Connecticut Department of Public Health (US)
- Harvard Global Health Institute (US)
- Stanford University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- The Journal of Infectious Diseases
- Published
- 2025-10-21
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaf532
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.37