Research on the Evolutionary Game Theory of Green Technological Innovation in Construction Companies Under the “Dual Carbon” Objectives

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals, the construction industry—as the primary source of carbon emissions accounting for 50.9%—is increasingly relying on green technological innovation to drive its sustainable development transformation. However, construction enterprises currently face three core challenges: the significant incremental costs associated with adopting green technologies, insufficient green credit supply from financial institutions, especially banks, and inadequate policy coordination among government departments. Furthermore, misaligned interests among multiple stakeholders exacerbate the implementation challenges of green technological innovation, hindering the industry′s low-carbon transition. Therefore, systematically exploring the interaction patterns and functional mechanisms among construction enterprises, government agencies, and banks in green technology innovation decision-making is crucial. This study will provide theoretical and empirical support for the green transformation of the construction industry within the dual-carbon framework. This study establishes a tripartite game model involving construction companies, governments, and banks, centered around the decision-making phase of green technology innovation. By integrating evolutionary game theory with system dynamics (SD) approaches, it uncovers the evolutionary trajectories and underlying mechanisms of strategies adopted by each stakeholder. Research indicates that construction companies, governments, and banks ultimately maintain equilibrium at the (1,1,1) point. The study underscores the pivotal role of government guidance during the decision-making stage, highlighting that sustained implementation of proactive policies can foster positive interactions and a balance between construction companies’ pursuit of green technology innovation and banks’ provision of green credit. It can shorten the time required for enterprises and banks to evolve their strategies. Suppressing the probability of innovation failure moderates both parties′ strategies, and adjusting parameters such as green credit interest rates and government subsidies can optimize choices. This research not only enhances the theoretical understanding of green technology innovation in the construction sector but also offers practical insights for promoting industry-wide green innovation, improving the quality of green buildings, and regulating market order.